2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Date Posted: May 29, 2024
Source: NOAA & BoatUS

The NOAA National Weather Service at the Climate Prediction Center has released its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, indicating an 85% probability of above-normal hurricane activity. The season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, could see 17 to 25 named storms, with 8 to 13 potentially escalating into hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.

Several contributing factors are driving this year's high activity forecast, including near-record warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures, the development of La Niña conditions, and lower-than-average wind shear and Atlantic trade winds, all of which favor tropical storm development.

BoatUS Helps Boaters Prepare: 'Extremely Active' 2024 Hurricane Season Expected

Colorado State University's (CSU) Tropical Weather and Climate researchers, long known for their annual hurricane forecasts, are calling for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to be "extremely active." Above-average warm waters in the eastern and central Atlantic – "fuel" for a hurricane – as well as expected La Niña conditions later this summer/fall, which decrease vertical wind shear, contribute to the potential for increased storm formation this season.

While past storm forecasts averaged just 14.4 named storms and 7.2 hurricanes per season (1991-2020), CSU researchers predict 23 named storms this season, which begins Saturday, June 1, with 11 expected to reach hurricane strength (winds of 74 mph or greater). That could mean more boaters on the coast may find themselves unexpectedly in the "cone," or predicted path of a hurricane, and needing to make preparations to protect their boat to lessen the chance for damage or loss.

They can start planning now with help from the national advocacy, services and safety group for boaters, Boat Owners Association of The United States (BoatUS), which offers free boat, yacht club, and marina preparation information at BoatUS.com/Hurricanes. BoatUS makes this information available to all boaters in hurricane regions (membership not required).

Offered online is an extensive library of hurricane-preparation videos and BoatUS Magazine articles containing proven tips and techniques amassed from the nearly four decades of post-storm recreational vessel recovery, salvage, and wreck-removal experience.

Downloadable guides include "BoatUS Magazine Hurricane Preparations," "Preparing Boats and Marinas for Hurricanes" and an easy-to-download "BoatUS Hurricane Preparation Worksheet" to take with you to the boat.

To help know when to prepare, an Active Storm Tracker helps keep boaters up to date on the direction and intensity of incoming storms, and the BoatUS App offers text alerts. The Atlantic Hurricane Season ends November 30, but in recent years, hurricanes have occurred outside the typical start and end dates.

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